Since 2002, NWS directives required forecasters to not use the PROB30 group in the first nine hours of the Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) - this restriction also included TAFs that were amended. PROB30 is used in a TAF like the one above shown in the EZWxBrief progressive web app to forecast a 30 percent chance of occurrence of a thunderstorm or precipitation event and its associated weather and obscuration elements (wind, visibility and/or sky condition) when occurrence of those elements are directly related to the thunderstorm or precipitation event. This restriction will end on or about September 30, 2024. This change aligns the U.S. TAF product with the International Civil Aviation Organization's (ICAO's) Annex 3, Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation, and improves consistency of the TAF with probability of precipitation forecasts in other NWS products.
Most pilots are weatherwise, but some are otherwise™
Dr. Scott Dennstaedt
Weather Systems Engineer
Founder, EZWxBrief™
CFI & former NWS meteorologist
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