Hello and thank you for taking the time to read the 41st issue of EZNews!
We highly value those members who have chosen to enable automatic renewal of their EZWxBrief membership on a monthly basis. If you haven't done so, please sign in and visit the User Profile page and click on the Renew button. By doing this, you can establish your monthly renewal with a Visa, MasterCard, or Discover credit card. This ensures that you remain connected and continue to enjoy the simplicity of EZWxBrief all year long.
For members new to EZWxBrief, you won't find EZWxBrief in the App Store or Google Play Store. For the best user experience, EZWxBrief is optimized to run as a progressive web app (PWA) and must be installed on your device which takes less than 10 seconds per device. Follow the instructions in this video or visit the 180+ page Pilots Guide for more information on how to install EZWxBrief as a PWA on all of your devices.
Coming soon...
Mark your calendars, based on many requests by attendees of the previous two classes we are looking to offer another live class early next year. The 10-week class will be held on Monday evenings at 8 pm EST beginning January 13, 2025. This will follow on the heels of the Weather Essentials for Pilots and Skew-T Weather Essentials classes held earlier this year and focus primarily on preflight route planning using live weather guidance from the EZWxBrief progressive web app. The goal of this class is to integrate and apply all of the training found in both of these previous classes. While it is not necessary to have attended these other two classes, it will be highly beneficial to at least have attended the Weather Essentials for Pilots class which can be purchased here. If you are interested in attending this new class, please contact us and we'll be sure you are on the reminder list when we make the official registration announcement at the end of September or early October.
NEW! Weather Essentials for Pilots: The Skew-T Edition eBook now on sale!
We have exciting news! There's a new eBook available for purchase that takes the best selling book, The Skew-T log (p) and Me: A Primer for Pilots, to a whole new level. Debuted this year at AirVenture, Weather Essentials for Pilots: The Skew-T Edition has taken the reigns from the Skew-T with Updates limited series that was offered for nearly two years and adds 150 more pages to the original Skew-T log (p) and Me eBook. This new eBook now incorporates material beyond the Skew-T diagram to include important weather topics such as air masses, low pressure areas and fronts, cloud classifications, terminal aerodrome forecasts and much more. It's now shaping up to be a basic weather book with the Skew-T diagram as the centerpiece. Given its 472 page length, we've opted to only provide this in PDF form as an eBook. If you missed the special pricing at AirVenture this year, use promo code TWENTYOFFWEP between now and September 15th to get $20 off the retail price of $129.
If you previously purchased the Skew-T with Updates eBook option, you already have this new eBook in your hands. An email was sent out in July with the latest update (check your spam folder). In fact, you will continue to receive free updates to this eBook for the next few years as it continues to evolve. For those that purchase this new eBook today, you will be notified of updates and will be able to purchase the next edition for a small fee. Before Scott retires he's hoping to document in this eBook all that he's learned about aviation weather over the last 30+ years for the benefit of general aviation pilots flying today and to those learning to fly in future generations.
Check out these five new videos on the EZWxBrief YouTube channel
Tropical remnants, not your ordinary convection - This discusses the remnants of Hurricane Debby as it moved up through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. It's important to understand the difference between most convective outbreaks and those that are part of a dissipating tropical system.
Using convective forecast guidance in EZWxBrief - This demonstrates how to use a subset of convective forecast guidance in EZWxBrief to plan a flight from central Pennsylvania to northwest Arkansas. This includes using the high-resolution thunderstorm outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), the 30K ft echo tops probabilistic forecast from the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) and the HREF forecast radar guidance.
Flight planning using the EZWxBrief progressive web app - This 24 minute video covers a preflight planning scenario for a convective weather event that boasts a fair amount of uncertainty.
Installing EZWxBrief as a progressive web app - This three-minute tutorial shows you how to install EZWxBrief as a progressive web app (PWA) for Chrome, Edge and Safari on your desktop and portable devices.
Using Saved Items in EZWxBrief - This six-minute tutorial shows you how to take advantage of the Saved Items feature (formally favorites) found in the EZWxBrief progressive web app.
Skew-T Weather Essentials recordings are available for purchase!
If you were not able to attend the live Skew-T Weather Essentials class that finished on July 1st, you now have the option to purchase all of the recordings from this 12-week course. A summary guide (in PDF form) will be available to download upon purchase (an email is also sent with a link to download this guide) that includes the following -
Table of contents
Hyperlinks to the twelve unlisted YouTube video recordings of each class
Hyperlinks to a PDF containing the slides for each class
Hyperlinks to each quiz and quiz answers for each class
The recorded classes vary in length from 45 to 60 minutes. This is provided for your personal use only. Please do not share this summary guide (or its contents) or post it online. We appreciate your cooperation.
"Who's who in Aviation & Weather" YouTube series continues...
We took a break in July to pre and attend AirVenture, but we are looking forward to bringing you the latest news and insights from the top minds in the aviation and weather industries. With a focus on weather, each month we'll feature interviews with leading industry experts on topics such as air traffic control, flight safety, forecasting, flight instruction and more. We'll also explore the latest trends and developments in these fields, and provide you with the information you need to stay ahead of the learning curve. So join us every four to six weeks as we explore the latest news and trends in these two fascinating industries.
This past month we really enjoyed talking with Rich Stowell who is an accomplished flight instructor, aviation author and recognized subject matter expert in loss of control in light airplanes. He was the 2014 National FAA Safety Team Rep of the Year and the 2006 National Flight Instructor of the Year. You can watch this new episode here.
Stay tuned for our next live program on Wednesday, September 4th at 3pm EDT as we chat with John Covino. John is a recently retired air traffic controller and tower supervisor at the Boston Logan International Airport. Besides his experience as a controller, he is also a pilot. We'll explore how complex weather can make an air traffic controller's job even more difficult, especially in a busy airspace. In October we'll be speaking with one of our good friends, Robert O. Buck. He's a retired airline pilot and also one of the authors of the legendary book, Weather Flying, Fifth Edition. We also look forward to chatting with Matt Johnson in November. Matt is an EMS helicopter pilot and DPE located in Ohio. We'll talk with him about the unique aspects of flying a helicopter in adverse weather.
> How to watch <
The program will be hosted live on EZWxBrief's YouTube channel. If you cannot attend live, the episodes are recorded and will become available on the same channel shortly after the live broadcast ends. You can also find them in the Who's Who in Aviation & Weather playlist. The exact date and time for future episodes will be announced through this blog and will appear on the EZWxBrief YouTube community page.
New TAF service at Half Moon Bay Airport (KHAF)
Effective Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 1800Z, the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Monterey, California will begin Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) service for the Half Moon Bay Airport (KHAF) in Half Moon Bay, California.
New TAF service at South Valley Regional Airport (KSVR)
Effective Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 1800Z, the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Salt Lake City, Utah, will begin Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) service for the South Valley Regional Airport (KSVR) in West Jordan, Utah.
With the availability of datalink weather, is a Stormscope still useful?
The answer depends on your mission and how many Ben Franklins you have to spare. In terms of affordability, your sferics (short for atmospherics) equipment may represent the only real-time weather you’ll ever see in your cockpit. Sure, panel-mounted and portable weather systems deliver their product in a timely fashion, but it will never be as toot sweet as your sferics device. Once you understand how to interpret your real-time lightning guidance, it can become a valuable asset in your inflight aviation toolkit.
Choices In The Cockpit
You have two options if you want lightning data in the cockpit: You can choose from ground-based lightning sensors or on-board lightning detection from a sferics device such as a Stormscope. A Stormscope provides real-time data, but does require some basic interpretation. Ground-based lightning, on the other hand, is a bit delayed and is only available through via a datalink broadcast such as SiriusXM or ADS-B at this time. Ground-based lightning is normally coupled with other weather guidance such as ground-based weather radar (NEXRAD), surface observations, pilot weather reports and other advisories or forecasts.
Ground-based Lightning
The ground-based lightning that’s now available through the Flight Information System-Broadcast (FIS-B) comes from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). This network of lightning detectors has a margin of error of 150 meters for locating a cloud-to-ground strike. The ground-based lightning sensors instantly detect the electromagnetic signals given off when lightning strikes the earth's surface.
With 150 meter accuracy, I’d choose ground-based lightning any day. Don’t get too excited though; ground-based lightning is very expensive (the data is owned by private companies like Vaisala) and you’ll not likely see a high resolution product in your cockpit anytime soon.
SiriusXM satellite weather pulls from a different lightning detection network and includes both cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning. It produces a 0.5 nm horizontal resolution lightning product. This means that you will see a lightning bolt or other symbol arranged on your display in a 0.5 nm grid as shown below. Even if 50 strikes were detected minutes apart near a grid point, only one symbol will be displayed for that grid point. Same is true for the FIS-B lightning.
Stormscope Advantages
A Stormscope must be viewed as a gross vectoring aide. You cannot expect to use it like on-board radar to penetrate a line of storms. Nevertheless, it does alert you to thunderstorm activity and will provide you with the ability to see the truly ugly parts of the weather. Where there’s lightning, you can also guarantee moderate or greater turbulence that is often extreme.
No lightning detection equipment shows every strike, but the Stormscope will show most cloud-to-ground and intracloud strikes. This allows you to see the intensity and concentration of the strikes within a cell or line of cells with a refresh rate of two seconds. It also allows you to see intracloud electrical activity that may be present in towering cumulus clouds even when no rain may be falling.
Even if no cloud-to-ground strikes are present, intracloud strikes may be present. The Stormscope can detect any strike that has some vertical component (most strikes do). This is important since there are typically more intracloud strikes than cloud-to-ground strikes. To emphasize this point, most of the storms in the central Plains have 10 times more intracloud strikes than cloud-to-ground strikes. Moreover, during the initial development of a thunderstorm and in some severe storms, intracloud lightning may dominate the spectrum.
Also keep in mind that a sferics device does not suffer from attenuation like on-board radar. That is, it can “see” the storm behind the storm to paint cells in the distance out to 200 nm, but it does not see precipitation or clouds.
Stormscope Disadvantages
It doesn’t take a full-fledged storm, complete with lightning, to get your attention. Intense precipitation alone is a good indicator of a strong updraft (or downdraft) and the potential for moderate to severe turbulence in the cloud. Consequently, the Stormscope does not tell you anything about the presence or intensity of precipitation or the absence of turbulence.
Never use the Stormscope as a tactical device to penetrate a line of thunderstorm cells. Visible gaps in the cells depicted on the Stormscope may fill in rapidly. Fly high and always stay visual and you will normally stay out of any serious turbulence.
A Stormscope display is often difficult to interpret by the novice. Radial spread, splattering, buried cables and seemingly random “clear air” strikes can create a challenge for the pilot. It may take a couple years of experience to be completely comfortable interpreting the Stormscope display. Often what you see out of your window will confirm what you see on your display.
Radial Spread
As the name suggests, the biggest Stormscope error is the distance calculation along the radial from the aircraft. The placement of the strike azimuthally is pretty accurate. However, how far to place the strike from the aircraft along the detected radial is a bit more complicated and prone to error.
Lightning strikes are not all made equally. When the sferics devices were invented back in the mid-1970s, they measured the distance of the cloud-to-ground strike based on the strength of the signal (amperage) generated by the strike. An average strike signature of 19,000 amperes is used to determine the approximate distance of the strike. Statistically, 98% of the return strokes have a peak current between 7,000 and 28,000 amperes. That creates the potential for error in the distance calculation.
Each stroke also emanates signals at several different frequencies. The lowest and highest frequencies will hit the detector at slightly different times. This kind of range folding can also be used to approximate the distance of the strike. Nevertheless, despite the errors, this is a useful approximation. Keep in mind, that strokes of stronger intensity generally appear closer and strokes of weaker intensity appear further away.
In strike mode on the Stormscope as shown above, strikes are displayed based on a specific strike signature, whereas cell mode on the newer Stormscope models uses a clustering algorithm that attempts to organize these strikes around a single location or cell as shown below. Cell mode will even remove strikes that are not part of a mature cell. Most thunderstorm outbreaks are a result of a line of storms. Cell mode provides a more accurate representation to the extent of the line of thunderstorms.
Radial spread is not necessarily always a bad thing. You can use it to your advantage to distinguish between false or clear air strikes and a real thunderstorm. Most of the strikes of a real storm will be of the typical strike signature and be placed appropriately. As mentioned above, stronger than average strikes will be painted closer to the airplane. Looking at this in strike mode, a line of these stronger strikes will protrude toward the aircraft. The result is a stingray-looking appearance to the strikes.
You can confirm this by clearing the display. The same stingray pattern should reappear with the tail protruding once again toward the airplane.
Clear frequently
Clearing the Stormscope display frequently is a must. How quickly the display “snaps back” will provide you with an indication of the intensity of the storm or line of storms. You should be sure to give these storms an extra-wide berth. Clearing the Stormscope in “clear air” will also remove any false strikes that may be displayed allowing you to focus on real cells that may be building in the distance. For example, below are all false strikes due to taxiing over a burred cable before departing. If you have a Stormscope, it's a good idea to add "Clear Stormscope" to your "before takeoff" checklist to prevent seeing this for the first time shortly after departure.
Aging
Both ground-based and on-board lightning use a specific symbol to indicate the age of the data. For Stormscope data shown on the Garmin 430/530, a lightning symbol is displayed for the most recent strikes (first six seconds the symbol is bolded). The symbol changes to a large plus “+” sign after one minute followed by a small plus “+” sign for strikes that are at least two minutes old. Finally, it is removed from the display after the strike is three minutes old.
Cells with lots of recent strikes will often contain the most severe updrafts and may not have much of a ground-based radar signature. Cells with lots of older strikes signify steady-state rainfall reaching the surface which may include significant downdrafts.
Flight Strategy
A nice feature of a Stormscope is that you can quickly assess the convective picture out to 200 nm while still safely on the ground. Same is true for lightning received from the SiriusXM datalink broadcast. However, for those with lightning from FIS-B, you won’t receive a broadcast until you are well above traffic pattern altitude unless your departure airport has an ADS-B tower on the field.
As soon as your Stormscope is turned on, within a few minutes you’ll get a pretty good picture of the challenging weather ahead. If you are flying IFR, you may want to negotiate your clearance or initial headings with ATC to steer clear of the areas you are painting on your display. I’ve cancelled or delayed a few flights based strictly on the initial Stormscope picture while I was still on the ramp.
Another goal is to fly as high as allowable. You will benefit from being able to get above the haze layer and the higher altitude will allow you to see the larger build-ups and towering cumulus from a greater distance. If you are flying IFR and you are continually asking for more than 30 degrees of heading change to get around small cells or significant buildups, then you should call it quits; you are too close or you are making decisions too late.
Visual or not, the goal is to keep the strikes (in cell mode) out of the 25 mile range ring on your Stormscope. If one or two strikes pop into this area, don’t worry; just keep most of the strikes outside of this 25 mile ring.
Don’t discount the value of a sferics device. Add one of datalink cockpit weather solutions as a compliment and you will have a great set of tools to steer clear of convective weather all year long.
EZWxBrief v2 news
Version 2.0.2 was released in August. See the release notes here. Most of the updates included some "fit and finish" issues that also included fixing a few bugs and internal updates. The primary change was removing the 3-Day option button for the turbulence (TURB) and icing (ICE) views in the Meteogram. When switching to these two views, only the 1-Day view will be available. This is in large part because the icing and turbulence forecast only extends out 21 and 18 hours, respectively, so showing this in a 3-Day view did not add any value.
We've been watching some of the newest forecast models introduced over the years and are very excited to add the HRW-FV3 model to the imagery mix. These are forecasts from the High Resolution Window (HRW) Non-Hydrostatic hybrid vertical coordinate mesoscale (HRW-FV3) model. This is a mouthful, but provides an hourly forecast over the next 48 hours and is updated two times throughout the day. Included is the simulated reflectivity forecast that provides forecast radar guidance over the next 48 hours for six regions and the conterminous U.S. It is run twice a day at 0000 and 1200 UTC and will become available in EZWxBrief about three hours after this time (approximately 0300 and 1500 UTC, respectively). Two products included at this time are the composite radar forecast and the forecast radar at the 1 km level. The latter gives you an idea of the precipitation intensity expected at the cloud bases or approximately 3,200 feet AGL. So it is somewhat similar to the lowest NEXRAD elevation.
Most pilots are weatherwise, but some are otherwise™
Dr. Scott Dennstaedt
Weather Systems Engineer
Founder, EZWxBrief™
CFI & former NWS meteorologist
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