Hello and thank you for taking the time to read the 46th issue of EZNews!
We value those members who have chosen to enable automatic renewal of their EZWxBrief membership on a monthly basis. If you haven't done so, please sign in and visit the User Profile page and click on the Renew button. By doing this, you can establish your monthly renewal with a Visa, MasterCard, or Discover credit card. This ensures that you remain connected and continue to enjoy the simplicity of EZWxBrief.
Two new 1-on-1 training subscription plans
Does weather perplex you? Are you interested in taking your aviation weather knowledge to a new level? Perhaps you want to review the weather before you depart so you can minimize your exposure to adverse weather? Then you may want to do purchase a 12-month online training plan where an expert can help you can improve your weather briefing skills. You have two subscription plan options. You can purchase a plan for five 60-minute sessions or five 30-minute sessions at a cost of $425 and $299, respectively. And if you prefer not to purchase one of these two plans, you can always book a single 60-minute or 30-minute session instead.
Sessions can be booked with Dr. Scott Dennstaedt Monday through Friday from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. eastern time. He is has been an instrument flight instructor for over 25 years and as a meteorologist for the last 45 years, he is also an aviation weather expert. At the present time there is no availability in the evening or on weekends/holidays. Blackout times will apply during aviation events (e.g., AirVenture). See this post for more information on how to purchase one of these two plans.
Buckeye Air Fair presentation
Are you attending the annual Buckeye Air Fair in Arizona February 14th through February 16th? If so, stop by and say hello. We'll be at the SiriusXM Aviation booth (Booth #1) during the show. Dr. Scott Dennstaedt will be doing a presentation on datalink weather Friday, February 14th at 1 pm and will be happy to answer any questions you might have while you are at the event. We hope to see you there!
Coming to SUN 'N FUN this year?
EZWxBrief won't have a vendor booth this year at SUN 'N FUN, but you can catch a couple of presentations by Dr. Scott Dennstaedt on Thursday, April 3rd if you are attending. He will have a presentation on Weather avoidance: Protecting the margins in the first floor cafeteria room (CFAA-01) at 10 am and 5 Things you must know about datalink weather at the AOPA Pavilion at 12 pm. Please stop by and say hello. Hope to see you there!
"Who's Who in Aviation & Weather" YouTube series continues...
We are looking forward to bringing you the latest news and insights from the top minds in the aviation and weather industries. With a focus on weather, each month we'll feature interviews with leading industry experts on topics such as air traffic control, flight safety, forecasting, flight instruction and more. We'll also explore the latest trends and developments in these fields, and provide you with the information you need to stay ahead of the learning curve. So join us every four to six weeks as we explore the latest news and trends in these two fascinating industries.
This past month we really enjoyed talking with Steven Green who is a retired airline captain and the author of Pilot Competency and Capability: Responsibilities, Strategy, and Command. He has extensive experience in accident analysis and worked in ALPA’s Inflight Icing Certification Project, as well as the Ice Protection Harmonization Working Group ARAC. We talked to Steve about his studies in airframe icing, specifically about how snow reaching the surface doesn't always mean the lack of airframe icing in the clouds producing the snow. You can watch this new episode here.
Stay tuned for our next live program on Friday, February 7th at 2 pm EST as we speak with Luke Alcorn who is a flight instructor and also a full-time air traffic controller at the Jacksonville Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC). We'll find out from Luke what center controllers see on their scopes as it relates to convective weather and how they can help pilots circumnavigate around adverse weather. Then in March, we look forward to chatting with Matt Johnson. Matt is an EMS helicopter pilot and DPE located in Ohio. We'll talk with him about the unique aspects of flying a helicopter in adverse weather.
> How to watch <
The program will be hosted live on EZWxBrief's YouTube channel. If you cannot attend live, the episodes are recorded and will become available on the same channel shortly after the live broadcast ends. You can also find them in the Who's Who in Aviation & Weather playlist. The exact date and time for future episodes will be announced through this blog and will appear on the EZWxBrief YouTube community page.
Should you climb when encountering freezing rain?
It’s a common misconception that you should always climb when encountering freezing rain. Most pilots are trained that freezing rain occurs when snow is falling through a cold cloud and melts completely as it encounters a temperature warmer than 0 degrees C turning it into rain (this is usually courtesy of a temperature inversion or what meteorologists call a warm nose). Then those raindrops fall into a subfreezing layer below and become freezing rain (FZRA). So, in this case, there is a layer of air above that is warmer than 0 degrees C.
This kind of temperature profile where the precipitation begins as snow only occurs in about 8% of the freezing rain events according to researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). If this is what you were taught, then you were taught the exception, not the rule. Aviation meteorologists and researchers call this the “classical” freezing rain profile where the depth of the weather can be well into flight levels. This allows for the tops to be in the favorable regime for the development of ice crystals and snow. Yes, it this case, climbing will put you in a position to at least temporarily escape the freezing rain threat. Even so, this “melting” layer may not have a sufficient depth.
Unfortunately, the real answer as to whether or not you should climb really depends on the situation. For example, climbing is usually the best option if you encounter FZRA or freezing drizzle on descent because you are your own best pilot weather report. You know that it wasn’t occurring above you, so it makes perfect sense to climb back to an altitude where you were not experiencing freezing rain.
For freezing drizzle (FZDZ), this is often not the case. There may be warmer air above you, but in some situations the temperature aloft doesn’t rise above the freezing mark. Yes, this means the entire temperature profile may be below freezing. Even if there is a layer of air that is warmer than 0 degrees C, it can be very shallow in this freezing drizzle scenario.
FZDZ is normally the result of an all-liquid process as small drops in the cloud collide and coalesce into drizzle-sized drops large enough to fall out of the cloud as drizzle. So, there’s no “melting” going on here. In other words, the precipitation did not begin as snow given the top of the weather system wasn’t cold enough to be dominated by ice crystals. Instead, it is dominated by supercooled liquid water. This is what aviation meteorologists refer to as a nonclassical profile that creates FZDZ in most cases.
The best strategy in this case is to turn around and go back to the location you were not encountering FZDZ. Once again, you are your own best pilot weather report. If you don’t know the temperature profile above you, it may not be wise to attempt a climb unless you can pop out on top of the weather into clear air. The tops of these weather systems do not usually reach into the flight levels. Nevertheless, climbing means increasing the angle of attack and placing yourself on a collision course with a stall even for an aircraft with a certified ice protection system (IPS). Most icing accidents or incidents occur when the aircraft is operating at a high angle of attack according to a study done by Steven Green.
The other fact to consider is that FZRA is largely a ground-hugging event. Most of the exposure to the classical FZRA will occur within the first two or three thousand feet of the surface. That is, it usually will be encountered while you are taxiing or while on departure or during arrival. It’s not something that you generally experience while flying along at cruise altitude. The nonclassical case, on the other hand, often occurs at much greater depths, sometimes as much as 16,000 feet. In those cases, you may not have the option to climb or descend to escape. It’s likely best to do a 180 degree turn and head back to a location where FZDZ was not occurring.
One of the deadliest icing accidents occurred near Roselawn, Indiana on October 31, 1994. The ATR-72-212 aircraft was on a flight from Indianapolis to Chicago (KORD) in a holding pattern at 10,000 feet. The flaps were extended to 15 degrees. The aircraft was in the hold for approximately 32 minutes when it was cleared to descend in the holding stack to 8,000 feet. As the flaps were retracted and the aircraft descended through 9,130 feet, the angle of attack increased beyond 5 degrees nose up. The ailerons rapidly deflected and the autopilot disconnected. The airplane rolled rapidly to the right. The aircraft was in a full right wing down position only a half of a second after the autopilot disconnected. Following several unsuccessful attempts by the crew to correct the airplane's attitude, the aircraft impacted a soybean field and everyone on board perished. This was attributed to a nonclassical icing environment.
Radar Next Program
Our NEXRAD radars are aging. While it's astounding that these radars (largely developed in the 1970s and early 1980s) have lasted as long as they have, they are in desperate need of a replacement technology. And that is what the Radar Next Program is designed to do. As of August 19, 2024 the Radar Operations Center completed a $150 million, nine-year Service Life Extension Program (SLEP) that extends the lifespan of the 159 weather radars that make up the nation’s Next Generation Weather Radar network (NEXRAD). Plans are now to begin the process of creating new technology that will take us well into the latter part of this century.
According to NOAA, "The Radar Next Program will design and deploy the next generation of weather surveillance radar technology to improve environmental data and products. This new generation of radars will provide critical atmospheric data enabling forecasters to improve the lead times and the accuracy of warnings for high-impact weather events." Below is the proposed timeline for the Radar Next Program - dates shown here are notional and subject to change based on the availability of funds among other circumstances. As of December 20, 2024, an audit of the program has begun to assess the adequacy of NWS
planning for continuity of national radar coverage. Given the new administration it is highly likely that funding will be challenged for this desperately needed program. You can read more on this program here.
NWS is considering eliminating the aviation convective outlook
There are two changes being proposed. First is to change the valid time of convective SIGMETs from 2 hours to 1 hour. This makes sense since convective SIGMETs are more of a NOWcast and describes the convection that is occurring at the time they are issued. It has always been strange to explain to a pilot why they are valid for two hours given they are always replaced/update the following hour. In other words, they are never left to simply die after two hours.
The convective outlook on the other hand is issued by the same meteorologist at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) that issues the convective SIGMETs for the U.S. They describe areas of convection that are expected to develop or be active in the next two to six hour window...here's the key...that meet convective SIGMET criteria. They are shown in many of the heavyweight apps and they appear as a yellow polygon in the EZWxBrief progressive web app as shown on the right. They are proposing that pilots use other convective forecast guidance found at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) and the AWC. None of these have the same criteria and usefulness as the current convective outlooks.
If you are interested in sending your formal comments, please direct them to Kevin Stone at kevin.stone@noaa.gov. He will forward them to the FAA-NWS working group on Weather Information Modernization and Transition for discussion and consideration. The proposed change (if approved) will likely go into effect within the next few months. Your comments are greatly appreciated and could help preserve this important forecast for years to come.
EZWxBrief v2 news
EZWxBrief v2.0.3 is the current version. There have been no new releases at this point in time. However, we did correct an issue that was preventing the 9-hr and 12-hr G-AIRMET snapshots from being displayed on the Map. We also made some changes that improves the performance when rendering the EZWxBrief vertical route profile view.
Lastly, we are diligently working to get a new version of the Skew-T diagram into the app. This feature is expected to be released in early June (or perhaps sooner). Below is a brief peek of what each diagram will initially look like for any airport located in the EZWxBrief domain. In addition to the temperature, dewpoint and wind, there will be a column on the left side of the diagram that contains turbulence guidance (Eddy Dissipation Rate) from the surface to FL450 and airframe icing severity guidance from the surface to FL300 rendered as function of pressure. More information on how to use this industry-unique aspect of the EZWxBrief Skew-T diagram will be released when this feature becomes available in a few months. Stay tuned.
Most pilots are weatherwise, but some are otherwise™
Dr. Scott Dennstaedt
Weather Systems Engineer
Founder, EZWxBrief™
CFI & former NWS meteorologist
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